A population surge that for the past two years ranked Isle of Wight County among Virginia’s top 10 fastest-growing localities appears to have tapered off in 2024.

Population estimates the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center released Jan. 27 for each of the state’s 133 cities and counties list 41,048 people living in Isle of Wight as of July 1 of last year. While it’s a 6.3% increase from the 38,606 counted during the 2020 Census, it’s only a half-percent increase over the same date in 2023.

Based on the 6.3% growth since 2020, Isle of Wight now ranks as Virginia’s 10th fastest-growing county, and its 13th fastest-growing locality including cities.

The less-than-1% year-over-year growth is a drop from the consecutive 2% annual growth Isle of Wight showed in 2023 and 2022, which had made it the sixth fastest-growing county last year.

Surry County, meanwhile, remains sparsely populated with roughly 6,500 residents, a figure that hasn’t gone up or down by more than 80 people since the census.

The Census Bureau, which has not released its 2024 update for Isle of Wight or Surry, last year estimated Isle of Wight’s population at 40,711 as of July 1, 2023, while Weldon Cooper estimated 40,873 as of the same date. The mid-2023 update for Surry estimated 6,593 residents while Weldon Cooper estimated 6,524.

Weldon Cooper’s methodology differs from the census in counting college students as residents of their home locality rather than the city or county where their school is located. The census is also limited in what state-specific data it can use due to needing uniform criteria for measuring population across all 50 states, Weldon Cooper demographer Hamilton Lombard, told The Smithfield Times last year.

Another factor Weldon Cooper and the census both examine is each locality’s birth rate and net migration, which refers to the number of people moving in, minus those moving out. Isle of Wight saw 287 more deaths than births since 2020, but saw 2,729 more people move in than move out in the four years since the census, according to Weldon Cooper’s 2024 data. Weldon Cooper’s data shows Surry with 112 more deaths than births and 109 more people moving in than out over the past four years, resulting in a net decrease of three people.

New Kent County, a Richmond suburb, repeated at the top of Weldon Cooper’s list of fastest-growing localities, having grown 16.8% over the past four years. Suffolk, which neighbors Isle of Wight to the east, is now Virginia’s fastest-growing city and fifth fastest-growing locality, including counties, with 8.7% population growth over four years, according to Weldon Cooper’s data.

Virginia uses Weldon Cooper’s annual population estimates, and a separate school-age population estimate, to proportionally allocate each city and county its share of state revenue. Among these state formulas is the “composite index,” which the state uses when allocating money to public schools. According to the Virginia Department of Education, the formula is intended to measure a school division’s “ability to pay” the cost of meeting state-mandated minimum staffing levels based on enrollment, adjusted gross income and tax revenue.

Isle of Wight’s lull in population growth last year could be the calm before the storm.

The first phase of the 812-home Mallory Pointe development under construction off Battery Park Road in Smithfield is set to see its first houses this year, while another 60-home housing development dubbed Windsor Station is underway off Shiloh Drive in the town of Windsor. The Crossings at Bartlett Station, a mixed-use development anchored by Carrollton’s newly opened Publix grocery store, is approved for up to 240 condominium units and 52 single-family homes in its under-construction residential phase. The 340-home South Harbor and 118-home Church Square age-restricted developments are also still building out.

Last year, county supervisors also approved the 615-home Sweetgrass mixed-use development off Benns Church Boulevard. The town of Smithfield and the county also have pending applications for new and expanded developments that, if approved, would add over 1,000 additional units across the northern end of the county.