As Isle of Wight County’s Planning Commission works with a consultant to project population growth over the next 20 years, the county’s school system is looking to do the same with regards to enrollment.

Last year, the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center projected Isle of Wight County Schools’ enrollment would remain relatively flat through 2029, in stark contrast with a 2023 study by Ohio-based Cooperative Strategies that estimated more than 1,000 new students, a roughly 17% increase from the division’s current enrollment of just under 5,600, would enroll during the buildout of more than a dozen planned housing developments. The Weldon Cooper data, however, looked only at Isle of Wight’s year-over-year enrollment to date and its birth rate, not building permits.

Separately, the county in 2024 rehired Bethesda, Maryland-based TischlerBise, the same consultant that worked on Isle of Wight’s 2020 “Envisioning the Isle” comprehensive plan, to calculate updated growth projections through 2040 for a committee tasked with drafting the plan’s five-year update.

TischlerBise, at the time of the 2020 plan’s writing, had estimated Isle of Wight would see its population grow 0.83% annually, though differing estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and Weldon Cooper show the growth rate has been closer to 2% per year over the past three, making Isle of Wight the sixth or seventh fastest-growing county in the state.

To avoid another round of differing projections, IWCS Deputy Superintendent Christopher Coleman said it may be beneficial for the division to also begin working with TischlerBise.

“The county has relied on TischlerBise for several years to support their data-driven decision making,” he said. “For the past five years or more Isle of Wight County Schools has partnered with another organization to guide our data analysis for future growth as it relates to school growth. As a recommendation by the School Board we are trying to align our efforts with the county by utilizing TischlerBise, aiming to ensure consistency in data analysis across the county and schools, ultimately improving the accuracy and relevance of projections for school-related planning.”

TischlerBise President Carson Bise, who made a proposal to Isle of Wight County’s School Board on Jan. 16, said his firm could build on the past demographic studies by coming up with a new system that would age current students through the school system, as well as take into account birth rates and new growth, to develop a 20-year public facilities plan that would identify options for new and expanded schools based on where enrollment is increasing.

Coleman said that to retain TischlerBise, IWCS would have to solicit quotes from multiple vendors as required by Virginia’s public procurement process.

One of the factors that has contributed to past discrepancies between enrollment projections is building capacity versus program capacity. The former is determined by state building and fire prevention codes, while the latter is constrained by state standards regarding class size. For example, a preschool classroom is required to have 18 or fewer students, while the same room, were it to house third grade, could have up to 24 students. Internal IWCS projections from early October estimated Carrollton Elementary, Hardy Elementary and Westside Elementary would each be at 99% of program capacity by the time all under-construction and approved but unbuilt developments planned for the northern end of the county are completed. Smithfield High School, which as of last fall was at roughly 86% capacity, would be at just under 95% at full buildout while Smithfield Middle School, which is already at just over 95% capacity, would be at 106%. The IWCS projections show all northern-end schools except for Smithfield High exceeding 100% program capacity if and when four proposed developments receive approval and fully build out.